The future of the Heineken Cup hangs in the balance for the first time in six years.
But unlike previous attempts at brinkmanship, the English and French clubs are negotiating from a position of greater financial strenght.
The English Premiership and French Top 14 sides have announced plans to press ahead with a new European tournament unless they receive concessions on television revenue and qualication structures.
Yesterday's ERC meeting in Dublin ended without agreement, although more negotiations are planned. But as it stands, things do not look good for the Heineken Cup.
So what is the real motivation for the teams that wish to breakaway?
Irish Times rugby correspondent Gerry Thornley was in studio last night and he sees the situation as "sabre rattling" and a "game of bluff".
"I don't believe that there will be an Anglo-French competition because the ERC was set up by the European unions to safeguard the well-being of the European game throughout all the unions. A new competition would need the approval of the IRB which comprises the unions. There's no way the IRB will give approval to a new rival competition."
Double their money
But the French and English clubs have money in mind as Thornley explained.
"The LNR (Ligue National Rugby) and the Premiership do not care a hoot about the grassroots. The ERC and Heineken Cup was set up for the good of the pan-European game. The myriad effects of no Heineken Cup go far further than the provinces not partaking. The best players would leave. The French Top 14 game is booming. They get €30 million a year from Canal Plus which is now coming to a conclusion. They will safely double their money in a new deal with Canal Plus, similarly to the arrival of BT as a rival to Sky in the Premiership. French clubs could take the hit in a way Irish, Scottish and Welsh clubs couldn't. Not having a Heineken Cup suits their agenda. It would free up nine weekends. They could even look to expand their Top 14."
But he sees the talks dragging on right down to the wire, although he is unsure the Heineken Cup will re-emerge in its current guise by 2014/15.
"The clubs in England and France are all owned by benefactors who do not care about the pan-European game. There is a willingness among the Celts and the Italians to have a different share out of the financial cake with more meritocracy payments - pretty much what the English and French clubs are looking for but they (English and French clubs) want it all.
But the Anglo-French alliance have hinted that they will reach out to entrants from other countries, which suggests that the Irish provinces figure very prominently in their thoughts.
"But that would be coming to the parlour - so the spider to the fly," said Thornley. "There's just no way that the Celts and Italians would do that. It was made clear at the meeting, that under no circumstances would Irish, Welsh, Scottish and Italian clubs join a new competition."
Listen to the interview below or download the Wednesday Night Rugby Podcast on iTunes. It includes an interview with Leinster and Ireland's Rob Kearney.
